What’s Your Ag Marketing Plan?

Matthew C. Roberts, Ph.D., with Bridgeforth, LLP, recently spoke at the Hardin County Conservation Tillage Club breakfast in Kenton. Roberts works as a Fractional CFO and Business Coach, helping family farms stay profitable and keep the operation in the family. He spends a lot of time digging into markets and trends so farmers can better understand where things are headed—and how to market their crops without leaving money on the table.

Roberts says today’s markets are jumpier than they used to be, and a big reason is the shift away from globalization. From the 1980s on, global trade really opened up, creating a huge rise in wealth around the world. Now, countries with money—like the U.S.—are leaning more toward isolationism. That reduces export opportunities, and when you add tariffs into the mix, you get volatility we haven’t had to deal with before.

So how do you plan around all that? Roberts’ advice: start by knowing your break‑even on each field. Use those numbers to set your pricing goals and then write down your marketing plan—when you want to sell, how much, and the minimum price you’ll accept. According to him, spending just 10 minutes putting that plan on paper helps you avoid emotional, spur‑of‑the‑moment decisions. His rule of thumb: try to have 33–50% of your new crop marketed before planting season even starts.

Corn Outlook

Roberts says corn demand still looks solid. Exports are holding strong, and demand for feed and ethanol is going up. With U.S. supplies tightening, he expects basis levels to improve heading into the end of the year—possibly around +15 for June/July.

Soybean Outlook

Soybeans aren’t quite as strong. Exports are still lagging, even though domestic crushing is increasing. The U.S.—and really the world—has plenty of supply. And while China is using more beans, they’re buying more from Brazil and Argentina than from us. Roberts suggests selling new‑crop beans on rallies of $11/bu or better and using a selling ladder starting at $11. His recommendation: get your target orders in now with your marketing advisor. A lot of overnight rallies get missed simply because there aren’t any orders sitting in the system.